However, any processes that involve making predictions may potentially be affected. This frequently affects elections and election research, since hindsight bias occurs regularly with regard to political decisions. Hindsight bias can be observed in situations where predictions and evaluations of such predictions are made. You can find more information about the current findings regarding the three aspects of hindsight bias in a study conducted by Hartmut Blank, Steffen Nestler, Gernot von Collani, and Volkhard Fischer. For example, in hindsight an event is perceived as more inevitable but also less predictable than it was perceived beforehand. Hindsight bias is not always easy to identify, since it’s paradoxical and its development occurs subconsciously. These three components of hindsight bias can also manifest independently of one another, so they are not necessarily interdependent. Today, in addition to the “subsequently increased perception of inevitability” and the “subsequently increased perception of predictability,” “memory distortion” is also believed to occur. These two aspects can coincide and even strengthen hindsight bias. The second is that hindsight bias can also give you a false memory of having correctly predicted the event beforehand.
The first is that the actual predictability of an event is overestimated in hindsight. Originally, Fischhoff had started from the assumption that hindsight bias was a single error, but he later went on to describe two sub-aspects.
Based on what we currently know, it has three components. Hindsight bias is more complex and multi-faceted than other biases. The first systematic study of this cognitive bias was conducted in 1975 by the American risk researcher and decision theorist Baruch Fischhoff.
Hindsight bias is a term used in cognitive psychology.
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